Alcohol consumption is falling. This by no means applies only to beer, as shown in the cover photo, but to alcoholic drinks in general. This naturally includes wine, where the effects are already clearly being felt.

Not just the economy

The trend has been emerging for some time and is set to continue in the long term, as Roland Berger (the well-known international management consultancy) explains, citing four main reasons: health consciousness, changing generational values, tighter regulation and demographic change. Berger follows this up with seven hypotheses:

1. World liquor consumption will decrease by 50% by 2050

2. Luxury alcohols will remain a resilient market segment

3. The market structure will evolve towards 3 distinct groups of players

     [1] Luxury niche players sponsored by prominent individuals, supported by [2] high value OEMs will compete against [3] the top 5 global groups of brands

4. Functional, non-alcoholic drinks will replace alcohol

5. More sophisticated flavor pairings will arise

6. Whoever controls water will control the alcoholic & other beverage industry

7. Advanced fermentation technology will become a new source of revenue

What does this mean?

“With per capita consumption falling, leveraging ‘Alco-technology’ is the key to survival in the alcohol market and to expansion into other sectors. … The application of AI across the alcoholic beverage value chain shows that the greatest opportunities lie in precision farming and consumer-oriented applications,” Berger is saying. Governments, manufacturers and retailers should work together to standardise a common definition of healthy alcohol. Those who act quickly and set trends will win the market.

Here is the full study: The Future of Alcohol – available to download.

Source and lead image: Roland Berger. Summary: Dieter Simon, Publisher: www.bonvinitas.com. Photo of wine enjoyment: German Wine Institute